DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/30 10:48

   Corn, Beans, Wheat All Lower at Midday Tuesday

   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower. Beans are 19 to 20 cents lower and wheat 
trade is 4 to 14 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   The U.S. stock market is firmer at midday with the S&P 30 points lower. The 
dollar index is up 50 points. The interest rate products are weaker. Energies 
are weaker with crude off $0.85 and natural gas off a penny. Livestock trade is 
weaker. Precious metals are weaker with gold down $49.

CORN:

   Corn is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with the May contract going into 
delivery with continued rains in the forecast for much of the Corn Belt. 
Ethanol margins should remain range-bound in short term as spring driving 
should expand further into May with unleaded weakness leaning on blender 
margins a bit again. Near-term weather looks to keep rain chances in play for 
much of the belt with planting and emergence running ahead of average at 27% 
planted vs. 22% and emerged at 7% vs. 4% on average on the report yesterday 
afternoon.

   The daily wire was quiet today. The recent patterns in South America 
continue with some areas of concern for double-crop corn lingering. On the July 
chart, the 20-day at $4.46 is nearby support which we are testing at midday 
with the recent high at $4.60 the next level of resistance.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybeans are 19 to 20 cents lower at midday with trade again fading from 
nearby resistance levels as oil scores fresh lows and meal fades after early 
strength. Meal is $0.50 to $1.50 lower and oil is 135 to 145 points lower. 
South American bushels should continue to attract the most export attention as 
harvest continues to wrap in Brazil with Argentina coming soon.

   The daily wire was quiet today. Planting progress is likely slow with the 
rain, but the warmer weather should help emergence on the planted acres with 
the weekly report showing planting at 18% vs. 10% on average. July soybean 
futures have support at the $11.40 recent low. Chart resistance is at the 
20-day moving average at $11.79 which we are fading from again.  

WHEAT:

   Wheat trade is 4 to 14 cents lower at midday with trade fading further from 
the fresh highs as we ease overbought conditions along with near-term weather 
concerns in the Black Sea and parts of the plains calming for now. The Plains 
will see seasonal to above-normal temps to push the crop along with better 
overall rain chances expected into early May with the western Plains expected 
to struggle the most. Black Sea concerns should ease short term with the 
extended forecast being watched to see if the warmer and drier pattern returns.

   The dollar continues to work a bit short of the highs with MATIF wheat 
continuing to ease as well. Weekly crop progress showed winter wheat at 30% 
headed vs. 23% on average with good to excellent at 49%, down 1% with poor to 
very poor unchanged at 16%. Spring wheat was 34% planted vs. 19% on average and 
5% emerged, the same as average. On the KC July chart, support is the 20-day at 
$5.98, with the fresh high at 6.64 as further resistance.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala




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